2026 Mid Year Market Check In

2026 Mid‑Year Market Check‑In

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

We’ve reached the halfway point of 2026, and as we usually do at this time every year, we’re taking a step back to look at what has shaped global markets over the past six months.

If I had to summarize the first half of 2026 in one word, it would be… eventful. Not chaotic like last year, but full of surprises that kept investors on their toes.

The big drivers have been geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, and the tug‑of‑war between higher inflation and slowing growth. Add to that continued frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) and the hype around the latest SpaceX initial public offering (IPO).

In short, investors had a lot to digest.

Markets shrugged off Iran war

Starting with geopolitics, the biggest shock of the first half of 2026 was the Iran war. The conflict triggered global stock market volatility and a sharp spike in oil prices. Crude oil shot up from around USD $70 to $125 a barrel driven by fears of supply disruptions.

The market reaction was fast and violent, with major stock market indexes losing roughly 10% in a matter of days. It’s important to remind ourselves that none of this was predictable. Investors who tried to trade around the headlines would have had a very hard time getting it right.

Even as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed to oil tankers for three and a half months, global stocks markets found themselves in positive territory at mid-year. In fact, the U.S. stock market rallied 15.5% in the second quarter, enjoying its best three months since spring 2020.

Go figure!

AI mania, return of big IPOs

Another big theme of 2026 was the AI boom. U.S. markets last year focused mostly on the so-called Magnificent 7 tech giant stocks. The excitement this year has spread to cloud infrastructure, networking equipment, data centers and advanced chip manufacturing.

We also saw the return of big, headline‑grabbing IPOs. After a long drought in the IPO market, 2026 is shaping up to be a big year. Elon Musk’s SpaceX came to market in June as the largest IPO in history. Open AI and Anthropic, both leading U.S. AI stocks, are also expected to go public in coming months.

For long‑term investors, it’s important to stay grounded and not get swept up in the hype. IPOs have historically been good for institutional investors that own shares before the stock went public. But for individual investors, their long‑run performance is far more mixed. They’re often unable to beat the return of a diversified benchmark like the S&P 500 Index.

Inflation is back

Turning to the economy, in Canada inflation has accelerated to its highest level in more than two years to reach 3.2% in May. This increase is due mainly due to the war in Iran and the resulting rise in the price of oil.

The Bank of Canada is currently dealing with mixed signals of a slowing economy marked by two successive quarters of GDP contraction and a possible need to fight inflation. For now, the central bank rate remains unchanged for the year at 2.25% and market expectations are that there won’t be any changes in rates in 2026.

Meanwhile in the U.S., inflation has risen to 4.2% in May, the highest level since April 2023 and well above the Federal Reserve’s target. Despite this news the Fed has kept the fed funds rate unchanged at the last meeting at 3.75%. The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations growing at 2.7% annually in Q1. Consumer spending is strong, and unemployment remains low at 4.2%.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points in June to 2.4% in order to keep a lid on inflation, which increased to 3.2% in the Euro zone in May. In the U.K., the Bank of England kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%.

Modest bond returns

Turning to market statistics, Canadian short‑term bonds, which are at the core of our fixed income portfolios, returned a modest 1.4% year‑to‑date, while the Canadian Universe Bond Index, which holds longer-dated bonds, delivered a slightly higher 2.1%.

On June 30, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Government of Canada bond was relatively unchanged since the beginning of the year at 3.37% versus 3.45% on December 31, 2025.

(As a reminder, a full array of market statistics is available on our team page on the PWL Capital website. Also find this data and the performance of our model portfolios on our Capital Topics website in the resources section.)

Canadian equities on fire

What about equities? In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 11.2% in the first half, driven mostly by energy and financial services which soared nearly 25% and 21% respectively. These two sectors have a huge impact on the TSX since they’re the two largest constituents—together representing over 50% of the index. For the last 12 months, the S&P/TSX Composite is up a massive 32.9%.

The surprise in Canada was that contrary to other markets, especially the U.S., the information technology sector has struggled and not kept pace with the AI story. The sector was negative 8.5% for the period.

U.S. and international stocks red hot

The U.S. market is also up nicely YTD reaching new all-time highs. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ-100 Index shot up 15.5% and 21% respectively over the last quarter alone.

Interestingly, equities are up despite the Magnificent 7 tech companies having a difficult first half. These seven stocks represent roughly a third of the S&P 500. Yet, as a group, they’re down 3.4% YTD as of June 29.

Yet another surprise is that despite the AI story, U.S. value stocks have outperformed growth for the past six and 12 months.

Developed international equities, measured by the MSCI EAFE fund, had a strong first half too—up almost 10% in Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, emerging markets rose an impressive 28.4%; for the last year they are up 49.9%.

Ignore the noise, stick with the plan

The big lesson is that markets rarely follow the script investors expect. Between the war in Iran, oil price spike, rising inflation, AI boom, SpaceX mania and Mag 7 downturn, there were plenty of reasons to worry. Yet, staying the course with a broadly diversified portfolio and long-term plan delivered solid returns.

Review whether your portfolio still matches your time horizon, risk tolerance and capacity. You may also need to periodically rebalance your allocations to make sure you’re in line with your targets.

We can’t predict how eventful the second half of 2026 will be. But we can prepare by staying disciplined and grounded in evidence.

Find more commentary on personal finance and investing, our podcast, past blog posts, eBooks, model portfolios and market statistics on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and our Capital Topics website.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Stay informed and inspired. Subscribe to our Bi-Weekly Newsletter for the latest podcasts, blogs, and James & François’ top reads from the past two weeks.

FNB mania—more doesn’t mean better

FNB mania—more doesn’t mean better

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

Want to invest in companies that could benefit from alien contact? There’s now an FNB for that.

The Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure FNB is one of a record number of new funds hitting the market as providers compete to carve out ever more specialized niches.

Over 360 new FNBs were launched in Canada last year, while in the U.S. the figure was over 1,150. The latter number is more U.S. exchange-traded funds than existed in total 20 years ago. The U.S. now has more FNBs than individual stocks being traded.

Active funds now dominate

It’s not just the unprecedented volume of FNBs that stands out. It’s also their holdings and strategies.

FNBs were until recently synonymous with low-cost passive index investing. You bought them if you wanted broad market exposure, low fees, tax efficiency and transparency.

That has changed. Nearly two-thirds of new FNBs in both countries last year were actively managed. There are now more actively managed FNBs than passively managed ones.

And this doesn’t even include a large category of FNBs that technically fall into the passive bucket, but are mostly used by active traders. These include leveraged, inverse, crypto-asset and other sector FNBs.

“I don’t need aliens to be real”

Some of the new FNBs tap into fads or esoteric ideas in order to stand out and attract investors. This includes the UFO Disclosure FNB (ticker UFOD), which invests in companies “positioned to benefit from government disclosure, confirmation or exploitation” of UFO “advanced technologies.”

“I don’t need aliens to be real for my thesis to work, but it’s a lot more fun if they are,” portfolio manager Matthew Tuttle was quoted saying by The Wall Street Journal. The fund charges a 0.99% annual fee and has $2 million in assets.

Another odd duck is the Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark FNB. This one is based on the notion that bitcoin outperforms outside U.S. market hours. It holds bitcoin when the market is closed, then flips into U.S. Treasury bills or cash when the market opens.

It charges 0.97% annually.

Average MER tops 0.65%

Such eye-popping fees, once the reserve of mutual funds, are now becoming more of the norm among FNBs. Driven higher by active funds, the average Canadian FNB’s management expense ratio is now over 0.65%.

This is many times above that of traditional indexed FNBs, which generally charge less than 10 basis points for Canadian and U.S. equities.

The danger is that investors see “FNB” and assume a fund has low fees.

Stocking picking and timing doesn’t work

Also concerning is that the flood of new FNBs makes it harder for long-term investors and advisors to choose appropriate investment tools. At PWL, we’ve been investing in FNBs for over 20 years as low-cost passive vehicles to get broadly diversified market exposure. We became known as “the FNB guys” because of our early adoption.

We base our strategy on solid evidence showing that investors have subpar results when they try to pick stocks or time the markets. As Warren Buffett has said, “The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.”

No one knows which companies or countries will outperform. In fact, just 4% of stocks accounted for all stock market wealth creation above a risk-free investment in Treasury bills from 1926 to 2023, one study found.

How do we ensure we own those 4%? Owning the entire market—and diversifying internationally—enables us to gain no matter what.

FNB slop

The tsunami of new FNBs can mislead investors who don’t fully understand the risks of niche, complex, high-fee products. Our colleague Ben Felix calls them “FNB slop.” Many seem to be designed with marketing in mind to gather assets—not with investors’ long-term benefit at the forefront.

Because many of the funds are so fringe, they often gather only a few million dollars and eventually shut down. A record 146 active FNBs closed or merged in the U.S. in 2025, a Morningstar report said.

“Most of the FNBs had small asset bases. Funds cost money to operate, and those that don’t garner enough assets are susceptible to being liquidated or merged away,” Morningstar said.

1 in 5 US active funds beat peers over 10 years

Ironically, as the FNB universe gets noisier, the evidence for broad-based, low‑cost indexing keeps getting stronger. Two new reports drive this message home.

Morningstar’s US Active/Passive Barometer Report found that only 38% of U.S. active funds survived and outperformed their average passive peers in 2025. U.S. managers had a 37% success rate, while international managers did a little better, with 48% outperforming.

Among bond managers, 40% beat passive peers, while just 4% of corporate bond managers managed to.

97% of Canadian active funds lagged

Longer term, active managers fared far worse, with only 21% of U.S. active funds surviving and outperforming their passive counterparts over 10 years. That drops to just 8.1% for U.S. large-cap equity funds. Over 20 years, the rate is even worse—a mere 6.4% among active U.S. large caps. Higher fees were a big factor in the active funds’ poor results.

In Canada, 85.4% of active funds underperformed their benchmarks in 2025, according to the SPIVA Canada Scorecard. Over 10 years, the results were even worse—with 97% of active funds being bested by their benchmark.

4 FNB mania takeaways

What to make of the FNB mania? Here are our four takeaways.

  1. Don’t confuse innovation with improvement.

  2. Simplicity wins.

  3. Stick to the evidence.

  4. Filter the noise.

The markets are like a giant supermarket with many aisles full of junk food. To eat healthy, you need to choose wisely.

While the FNB universe gets more chaotic, the core principles of sound investing remain unchanged: Low fees, broad diversification and long‑term discipline pay off.

Find commentary on personal finance and investing, our podcast, past blog posts, eBooks, model portfolios and market statistics on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and our Capital Topics website.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Stay informed and inspired. Subscribe to our Bi-Weekly Newsletter for the latest podcasts, blogs, and James & François’ top reads from the past two weeks.

30 Years of Putting Clients First at PWL Capital

30 Years of Putting Clients First at PWL Capital

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

PWL Capital began 30 years ago with a clear vision. My two partners and I had an idea that we believed could reshape the wealth management industry in Canada.

We set out to build a new type of advisory firm—one without conflicts of interest and focused solely on clients.

PWL would offer fee-based wealth management, with no commissions or in-house products. At the time, this idea was far from mainstream. The vast majority of wealth managers were compensated through commissions. They focused on selling their firm’s products, and their incentives were often misaligned with those of clients.

We also wanted to bring together money management and financial planning under one roof. We’d create a true one-stop shop to help clients reach their goals. This was a big new idea.

Leading-edge firms in the U.S. had already moved in this direction. It was the way of the future. But no one else in Canada had adopted this approach yet. Financial planning and sound asset allocation were often given little more than lip service.

Investors deserved better

My partners Laurent Wermenlinger and Anthony Layton (the “W” and “L” in “PWL”) and I felt investors deserved better. We wanted to put clients first. Our approach would be based on clients’ needs and disciplined long-term investing.

PWL would hold itself to the highest standards of integrity, objectivity and expertise. With no conflicts, we could sit on the same side of the table as the people we served.

This carried through to how we reported performance results to clients. We adopted the standards of the Association for Investment Management and Research (now the CFA Institute). This was virtually non-existent in the retail wealth management space in Canada at the time.

Clients would easily be able to see how their investments were doing.

Pioneering approach vindicated

We believed there was an investor appetite for such a new approach. It turns out, we were right. PWL Capital quickly had $7 million under management soon after we opened our doors in 1996.

Our pioneering approach was vindicated. This, however, didn’t mean easy sailing. Despite our early success, the first years were challenging and uncertain. After paying rent and salaries, we didn’t have enough left over to pay ourselves as partners for several years.

PWL grew quickly, but costs did, too. We needed larger premises. We had to hire more staff. But we knew we had to invest in our business, even if the payoff took time. We had to create value for clients and develop an internal business culture. Targeting success too quickly also had its risks.

After four years, we reached our first $100 million in assets under management. We took our first steps at expansion in 1997 with an office in Ottawa, then another in Toronto in 2003.

I worked those first years non-stop. When I travelled across Canada and the U.S. for conferences, I thought of those trips as my “vacations.”

Enter the ETF

The financial markets brought their own set of challenges. The dot-com crash of 2000-2002 led to a drop in assets under management. But we learned from the experience, too. We saw something during the crash that shaped a new course for PWL: Active managers had failed to outperform.

This revelation led us to research and invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are low-fee, passively managed funds that replicate the holdings of various indexes instead of trying to beat them.

The idea was to own the entire stock market through index-based ETFs, which own all the stocks in a specific index, such as the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

While ETFs are well-known now, few investors had heard of them at the time. Many didn’t understand why we liked them. They thought it was like giving up. Some likened marketing passive investing with ETFs to entering the Olympics 5,000-metre race with a weight tied around your ankle.

Markets work

But evidence showed that stock picking and market timing were like gambling. These weren’t reliable ways to fully benefit from the market’s gains. Instead, we embraced the bold idea that markets work. Our goal would be to deliver the expected returns that markets have to offer.

As part of this evolution, we helped bring Dimensional Fund Advisors and their low-cost factor-based funds to Canada. Dimensional, in turn, helped us hone our philosophy of passive investing and, significantly, to develop the messaging on how to sell this new value proposition to clients. Dimensional became a key strategic partner in helping us develop our company based on global industry best practices.

We have been working with Dimensional since 2003, and they have excelled at identifying academic findings that can be implemented in the products that we use in our clients’ portfolios.

Dimensional’s discipline about managing portfolios based on academic science is a critical component of how we implement our approach of “buy, hold and rebalance.” This evidence-based approach is core to our success story and the long-term performance of clients’ portfolios.

Many shades of diversification

Other forms of diversification of course remain important, too. For example, U.S. stocks strongly outperformed Canadian and international counterparts for over a decade after the financial crisis ended in 2009. Yet, Canadian and international stocks flipped the story in 2025, paying off for investors with oversized gains.

Being broadly diversified within an asset class is also crucial. As economist Hendrik Bessembinder found in a key paper, just 4% of companies accounted for all U.S. stock market wealth creation above a risk-free T-bill investment from 1926 to 2023. The majority of stocks—51.6%—actually had negative compound returns during this period.

Being diversified between stocks and bonds also reduces risk. These two asset classes tend to have a negative correlation during crises, with bonds offering a cushion when stocks sell off.

Value of diversification

Such an approach also coincides with research showing the value of diversification across asset classes and countries. Owning a well-diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds reduces risk and increases returns, studies showed.

Our approach was to stay broadly invested and diversified regardless of any one market’s short-term ups and downs. This way we’d be sure to capture the total market’s winners over the long run and enjoy the incredible long-term gains it offered.

Our data-based choice has been repeatedly confirmed by new studies over the years. One remarkable study found that just 4% of stocks accounted for all U.S. stock market wealth creation above a risk-free investment in Treasury bills from 1926 to 2023.

A majority of stocks—51.6% to be exact—actually had negative compound returns. In other words, slightly more than half of stocks lost money over their life.

Fantastic gains come with a price

No one could know ahead of time which companies would be among those successful 4%. Owning the entire market was the only way to be sure to capture their gains. If you did so, you could make fantastic returns.

A dollar invested in a diversified international equity portfolio in 1970 would have grown to over $16 after inflation by 2024, PWL Capital Senior Researcher Raymond Kerzeho found in a report last year.

We recognized, however, that such amazing returns came at a price: volatility. This was the cost of entry for investing success. As Raymond found, the period since 1970 saw six bear markets (a 20%+ real decline). “Investors should hold on to their portfolio and expect bear markets as a normal part of investing,” he said. “These periods are the entry price to join the club of successful long-term investors.”

Most active funds underperform

The research has also only gotten clearer about actively managed funds. Studies have repeatedly confirmed our view that most active funds underperform the markets. In 2025, the annual SPIVA report found that a whopping 89% of actively managed multi-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 Composite Index over the prior 20 years.

The long-term evidence is that only a small portion of stocks tends to deliver most of the wealth creation of the stock market. But there’s no way to know ahead of time which companies will be the winners.

As Warren Buffett once put it, “It’s harder than you would think to predict which will [companies] be the winners and losers. And those who tell you they know the answer are usually either self-delusional or snake-oil salesmen.”

Supporting clients’ prosperity

But our business was about more than managing portfolios. We saw our role more broadly as supporting clients’ overall prosperity and well being. A portfolio is a means to a bigger end—whether it be supporting a client’s financial needs, giving to charity or community projects, or leaving a legacy for the next generation.

Our first step with a new client is to sit with them to understand their overall goals, risk capacity and risk tolerance. We review everything from tax and estate planning to insurance needs and financial objectives. With this information, we develop an integrated plan, including any needed tax, estate and insurance advice.

The process allows us to craft and propose an investing strategy to meet our clients’ life goals. The strategy includes settling on a mix of stocks and bonds to ensure they have a level of volatility in their portfolio that lets them sleep at night during inevitable market selloffs. The bond allocation provides stability and a source of income during market downturns, reducing the need to sell equities at depressed prices.

Client education builds confidence

Our approach also involves coaching clients in investing. We place a strong emphasis on education. This helps customers feel confident in their strategy and maintain the discipline to stay the course through market volatility, while ignoring the noise from pundits and analysts.

This approach, too, is borne out by evidence. A study by the investment firm Vanguard found that advisors who use wealth management best practices can add up to 3% or more in net annual returns for clients. That added value compounds significantly over many years.

One of an advisor’s most significant contributions is coaching investors, the study found. During market swings, fear and euphoria can push investors toward rash actions that undermine their plans. A knowledgeable, experienced advisor can help clients hold steady when markets fall and avoid overconfidence when they rise.

PWL grew rapidly

Our approach resonated strongly with investors, and PWL grew rapidly. By 2007, we had $600 million in assets under management—nearly double the amount in 2003. Then the financial crisis of 2007–09 unfolded, hitting both investors and the firm hard. Assets declined to $460 million.

We tightened our belts and reduced compensation, not wanting to let any of our team go. Our employees are like family. We’re so proud of how many have built rewarding careers, started families and bought homes. They’re also invaluable for our work—without them, we can’t serve our clients. We’re very gratified that we were able to avoid layoffs and ride it out.

In a sense, we were putting our own philosophy into practice—remaining focused on the long term and navigating market volatility with discipline. We believed that markets would eventually recover and that our strong foundation positioned us well for what lay ahead.

Two new reasons to smile

There was also happy news. I became a father of twins. I couldn’t have been prouder, more excited or more optimistic. Fatherhood infused my work with new positive energy and hope.

During financial crises, portfolio managers tend to spend more time than usual speaking with clients about the markets. We need to explain the rationale behind their portfolio and reassure them about the benefits of sticking with their long-term strategy.

The financial crisis reinforced for us the importance of educating clients. We decided to extend that mission to the broader public. We saw a clear need for unbiased evidence-based guidance amid a flood of poor advice, unreliable forecasts and widespread investor stress.

Helping investors stay the course

In the early 2010s, our portfolio managers Justin Bender and Dan Bortolotti started to write investor blogs. They were later joined by Cameron Passmore and Ben Felix with the Rational Reminder podcast. The latter became one of Canada’s most widely recognized financial education platforms and most internationally successful podcasts on investing. Ben Felix also publishes a widely followed YouTube channel.

My team partner François Doyon La Rochelle and I also chimed in on a smaller scale with our “Capital Topics” podcast (“Sujet Capital” in French), which we started during the pandemic. I also launched my own blog in 2021.

Our content has reached millions of Canadians, positioned PWL as an industry leader and helped investors navigate the complexities of investing and market turbulence. Many PWL team members have sought careers at PWL based on our content.

Our publicly available advice mirrors the coaching we give clients. We’re proud of our efforts to help investors stay the course and maintain a disciplined long-term view. Those who managed to hold on through the selloffs have gone on to enjoy incredible returns.

Values set us apart

One study, which we wrote about in our Capital Topics blog, found that investors who stuck with a 50-50% stock-bond mix through the financial crisis saw a 209% return by 2024—versus a 16% loss for those who moved fully to cash.

To quote Warren Buffett again: “In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

Through the years, PWL has given back in other ways. We support many charities, including United Way Centraide, university and hospital foundations, and other worthy charitable organizations. We believe our values set us apart.

The PWL difference

I couldn’t be more gratified or grateful when clients tell us they appreciate the PWL difference. We see the proof in our results. By 2014, we had our first $1 billion under management.

In 2016, we solidified PWL’s commitment to the highest standards by obtaining certification from the Centre for Fiduciary Excellence, an independent body that promotes best practices in the investment industry.

Assets under management grew to $2.5 billion in 2017 and $5.5 billion in 2025. That year, the Globe and Mail reported that PWL was one of Canada’s fastest-growing wealth management companies. Growth had averaged 17% annually over the previous decade, compared with an industry average of under 10%.

$8B assets—partnering with OneDigital

It’s also gratifying to see the investing industry embrace our approach. In 2025, we took a big step and partnered with Atlanta-based OneDigital. Under the agreement, PWL Capital remains as a stand-alone unit with resources available to accelerate our growth. Together we’re creating a firm with broader reach, deeper expertise and a larger platform, while staying true to the principles that made us successful.

In keeping with this evolution, we rebranded in February as PWL Capital, A OneDigital Company.

Assets under management today stand at $8 billion.

From upstart to industry leader—thank you!

As we celebrate PWL Capital’s 30th anniversary in 2026, I’m incredibly proud of our extraordinary story, values and mission of changing the investing world for clients by offering disciplined, evidence-based financial advice they can trust. I believe wholeheartedly in the values and mission of the firm.

We’ve grown from an upstart boutique advisory practice to one of Canada’s leading evidence-based wealth management firms. I’m very grateful to our OneDigital partners, our highly talented team, my partner François Doyon La Rochelle, and our dear clients who believe in us and have helped fuel our remarkable growth. Heartfelt thanks for your great contributions and for sharing our vision.

I’m excited for the new chapters of PWL and what we accomplish next. We wish our customers, team and partners happiness, health and success in your endeavours.

Find commentary on personal finance and investing, our podcast, past blog posts, eBooks, model portfolios and market statistics on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and our Capital Topics website.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Stay informed and inspired. Subscribe to our Bi-Weekly Newsletter for the latest podcasts, blogs, and James & François’ top reads from the past two weeks.

Value has evolved. Diversification remains key.

Value has evolved. Diversification remains key.

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

Investors are struggling to make sense of today’s headlines. The news is hard to ignore—war in the Mideast, fuel prices, political turmoil. When uncertainty rises, it’s natural to feel the urge to act.

But history offers a useful reminder: The biggest risk to investors is often not the market itself, but how we respond to it. The challenge is staying grounded when everything around us feels unstable.

This is where strategy matters. A well-built portfolio isn’t designed for a single future—it’s designed to work across many possible outcomes. One of the most important ways to achieve that is through diversification—exposure to different markets, including those that may not be in favour today.

The value premium

As the great investment thinker Peter Bernstein said, “I view diversification not only as a survival strategy but as an aggressive strategy, because the next windfall might come from a surprising place. I want to make sure I’m exposed to it. Somebody once said that if you’re comfortable with everything you own, you’re not diversified.”

One of the key ways to increase diversification is by tilting your portfolio towards value stocks. Value stocks are companies trading at relatively low prices compared to their fundamentals—such as earnings or book value. They’re often mature businesses, sometimes out of favor, or simply less exciting than their high-growth counterparts.

Historically, value stocks have delivered higher returns than growth stocks. In the U.S. large-cap market, value stocks beat growth companies by 2.16% per year, according to data from 1926 to 2014. We call this the “value premium.”

Gone, then back again

But that premium hasn’t been consistent. From January 2015 to December 2024, value significantly underperformed growth. The premium during this period was -11.6% per year. This sparked a debate about whether the value premium has disappeared.

Then, during the recent market turbulence, the situation reversed again. Value started to strongly outperform. As of April 5, the Russell 1000 U.S. Value Index was up 2.4% for the year, handily beating the Russell 1000 U.S. Growth Index’s 9.1% loss, the Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index was down 3.8%, its worst quarter in nearly four years.

Is the value premium back? Or do we need to revisit what we think of as a value stock?

Not all cheap firms are equal

New research suggests this is the case. Value investing traditionally has meant buying what was cheap. But in a 2013 landmark paper, Robert Novy-Marx, an eminent finance professor at the Simon Business School at the University of Rochester, showed that not all cheap companies are the same. Some are cheap because they have weak fundamentals, while others are cheap despite being strong.

Novy-Marx found that companies with higher profitability tend to earn higher returns, even when they’re not “cheap.” In other words, price alone doesn’t define value. Profitability is also important.

Novy-Marx updated his findings in an important paper coauthored with Mamdouh Medhat of Dimensional Fund Advisors in October 2025. They found that growth firms reported higher profits than their historical average.

Meanwhile, traditional value stocks remained at their historical norms in terms of profitability. The story wasn’t that value had stopped working. It was that profitability became the main driver of returns.

Valuation and profitability—both important

This led to the conclusion that the best way to capture value is to consider both valuation and profitability. The evidence is that more profitable firms should have higher returns, even if they’re expensive—while cheap companies may not if they’re not profitable. The best value opportunities are reasonably priced stocks with strong profitability.

As Novy-Marx said in the 2013 paper, “Investment managers should carefully consider their portfolios’ exposure to profitability, as it is a key driver of returns across multiple investment classes.”

Dimensional’s discipline about managing portfolios based on academic science has led them to integrate profitability into how they manage their equity funds.

Dimensional excels at identifying academic findings that can be implemented in the products that we use in our clients’ portfolios. For this reason, we’ve been working with them since 2003.

Many shades of diversification

Other forms of diversification of course remain important, too. For example, U.S. stocks strongly outperformed Canadian and international counterparts for over a decade after the financial crisis ended in 2009. Yet, Canadian and international stocks flipped the story in 2025, paying off for investors with oversized gains.

Being broadly diversified within an asset class is also crucial. As economist Hendrik Bessembinder found in a key paper, just 4% of companies accounted for all U.S. stock market wealth creation above a risk-free T-bill investment from 1926 to 2023. The majority of stocks—51.6%—actually had negative compound returns during this period.

Being diversified between stocks and bonds also reduces risk. These two asset classes tend to have a negative correlation during crises, with bonds offering a cushion when stocks sell off.

Free lunch

Whatever the market, the prescription for successful investing remains diversification. It allows investors either to earn the same return with lower risk, or a higher return for the same risk.

This is why it’s often described as a “free lunch”—maybe the only free lunch in finance.

One of the most important results of diversification is peace of mind. Knowing that our investments are well diversified makes it easier to ignore turbulent news and stay focused on the long-term payoff.

Find more commentary on personal finance and investing, our podcast, past blog posts, eBooks, model portfolios and market statistics on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and our Capital Topics website.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

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Why Passive Investing Still Beats Active

Why Passive Investing Still Beats Active

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

If you read this blog, you know the evidence about active versus passive investing. It consistently shows that the vast majority of actively managed funds fail to beat the market over the long run.

The reasons are simple. It’s very hard to time the market and pick stocks that will outperform. Even when an active manager makes some good calls, it’s even rarer to do so consistently over the long run, especially as higher fees gobble up gains.

The most striking data about this comes from the annual SPIVA reports on actively managed funds. They show year after year that actively managed funds lag the market.

98% of funds underperformed

In 2024, the report found that a whopping 98% of multi-cap funds underperformed the S&P 1500 Composite Index over the prior 10 years.

Investors have heeded all this evidence. U.S. active equity mutual funds saw over $1 trillion in net outflows in 2025—the 11th consecutive year—according to a report by analyst Larry Swedroe.

Meanwhile, passive equity exchange-traded funds attracted more than $600 billion.

Market efficiency being eroded?

Despite the data, advocates of active management haven’t given up. They’re now making an interesting new argument—claiming that the net outflows may actually help stock pickers.

“The narrative goes like this,” Swedroe wrote about these claims. “As more investors abandon active management for passive index funds, price discovery will deteriorate, markets will become less efficient, and opportunities for skilled stock pickers will multiply…

“There’s just one problem: reality refuses to cooperate.”

Swedroe noted that if the thesis were correct, the steady outflow of funds quitting active management should have led to improved performance against benchmarks. “Instead, we’ve seen the opposite,” he said.

The other side of the trade

Who is correct? Is active investing is getting new life? Has the rise of passive investing indeed imperilled market efficiency?

Weighing into the debate is Morgan Stanley with a new report titled, “Who Is On the Other Side?” The authors are well-known Columbia Business School adjunct professor of finance Michael Mauboussin and his long-time collaborator Dan Callahan.

They look at the question through a unique perspective that’s sometimes overlooked. When you’re buying a stock, there’s a seller on the other side. It’s useful to ask yourself: What does the seller know that I don’t? The same is true if you’re selling.

Professionals help boost market efficiency

Who then is on the other side of a trade in today's markets? These are mostly institutional players, retail investors, sovereign wealth funds, day traders, hedge funds and other professionals. All these actors help make the market more efficient.

Before we go further, let me explain market efficiency. This is the notion that markets accurately reflect available information. In other words, an investor can never get an edge because markets have already priced in all relevant information.

The inventor of the idea, Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago, broke it down into three levels.

Weak market efficiency means prices reflect all past data. In semi-strong efficiency, prices reflect all publicly available information. Strong market efficiency means prices reflect all available information, including private data.

Act as though markets are perfectly efficient

In over 25 years of experience as portfolio managers at PWL Capital, we can safely say markets are not perfectly efficient. Fama agrees. At the same time, his view is it’s in your best interest to act as though the market is perfectly efficient.

In other words, assume you have no edge. We at PWL agree with this.

Traders of all sorts are always looking to find pricing inefficiencies. This is the basis of trying to pick stocks and time the markets. But as Mauboussin and Callahan point out, if you want to beat the market, you need a competitive advantage over other market participants.

Every time you buy or sell a stock, someone else is on the other side of the trade. To beat them, you need an edge over them.

2% of companies = nearly 90% of wealth

Determining the fair value of a stock requires you to know the future value of the cash flow of a company and discount rate. That means forecasting the future.

The evidence shows this is very hard to do. Only about 2% of companies created nearly 90% of the total wealth in the market during the last century, Morgan Stanley’s report said. This is consistent with data we reported in our blog that found just 4% of stocks accounted for all stock market wealth creation above a risk-free investment in Treasury bills from 1926 to 2023.

The likelihood of identifying these 2% or 4% of stocks ahead of time is very slim. Mauboussin and Callahan say this requires an edge in four distinct areas.

  1. Behavioural—You need to be more rational than other investors.

  2. Analytical—You must be able to predict which businesses will outperform.

  3. Informational—You need in-depth research giving you valuable information unavailable to others.

  4. Technical—You need to be able to exploit temporary imbalances between supply and demand for a security.

If it sounds challenging, you are right. It is. Most retail investors don’t have the time, knowledge or expertise to gain an edge in these areas. Don’t forget who is on the other side of the trade: professional investors with a team of analysts and vast resources. And even most of them can’t consistently beat the market.

What is your specific edge?

If you conclude that you don’t have an edge, you shouldn’t be trying to actively trade. Instead, the best thing to do is adopt a passive diversified portfolio to capture the broad market’s returns. This means you’re sure to get exposure to the small fraction of companies that will deliver outsized gains in the long run.

If you’re trying to pick stocks, you could get lucky—for a time. But don’t confuse luck with skill. The same applies to picking an active manager. Picking the few who will outperform is called gambling.

Shift in mindset

Accepting market efficiency is a shift in mindset. It leads an investor to stop wasting its time and energy on trying to forecast markets, pick stocks or mutual fund managers. You can focus on things that do matter.

This includes assessing your risk tolerance and finding the right balance of diversified stocks and bonds to meet your goals. It means being disciplined about sticking with your investing strategy.

By adopting a new mindset, you can sit back and let the (more or less) efficient market do its thing.

Find more commentary on personal finance and investing, our podcast, past blog posts, eBooks, model portfolios and market statistics on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and our Capital Topics website.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Stay informed and inspired. Subscribe to our Bi-Weekly Newsletter for the latest podcasts, blogs, and James & François’ top reads from the past two weeks.