2025 Year in Review—A Masterclass in Misleading Emotions

2025 Year in Review—A Masterclass in Misleading Emotions

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

On behalf of the PWL team, I’d like to wish you a happy, healthy, and prosperous year in 2026.

Our first blog of the year is a good time to look back on what happened in the markets and economy in 2025. Last year was a masterclass in how emotions can mislead investors. It defied expectations at almost every turn.

Pundits kicked off 2025 with sombre warnings of stretched valuations, slowing growth and the possible collapse of the AI boom.

If I had told you at the start of 2025 that we’d see sweeping tariffs, a record‑long U.S. government shutdown, sticky inflation and a geopolitical rollercoaster, I think you too would have expected a rough year for stocks.

Third year of double-digit gains

Every month seemed to bring a new reason to worry. Last April saw one of the sharpest selloffs in years after the U.S. announced sweeping tariffs.

Yet, in the end, markets delivered a third straight year of stellar double‑digit gains for U.S. and Canadian stocks, as we discuss in our latest Capital Topics podcast.

Very few pundits saw such results coming—proof, once again, of our frequent advice to ignore market forecasts. (See, for example, our last blog titled “Our Best Advice of 2025.” The first tip was “Ignore the pundits.”)

The incredible results also add to the ample evidence for patiently sticking to your long-term investing plan. Trying to time the market by selling would have been a costly mistake.

Canada was the biggest surprise

Perhaps the biggest surprise was Canada. Despite the glum headlines and anxiety over U.S. tariffs, the S&P/TSX Composite Index quietly delivered one of the strongest performances in the world.

(You can find market statistics on our Capital Topics website in the resources section or on our team’s page on the PWL Capital website.)

Economically speaking, 2025 wasn’t a boom or bust. Inflation in Canada continued its downward drift, ending the year at 2.2%. This allowed the Bank of Canada to start cutting rates earlier and more aggressively than the U.S., with four rate cuts during the year from 3.25% to 2.25%.

Canadian bonds did their job

Stubborn inflation in the U.S. led the Federal Reserve Board to be more cautious, with only three rate cuts from 4.5% to 3.75%. Euro area inflation fell more sharply, leading to four cuts from 3.15% to 2.15%.

Unemployment edged higher in both Canada (ending at 6.8%) and the U.S. (finishing at 4.4%). U.S. GDP growth surprised with a final-quarter annualized rate of 4.3% versus Canada’s more modest 2.6% third-quarter increase.

Thanks to the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts and falling yields, the Canadian short‑term bond index finished the year up 3.9%. The broader universe bond index, which holds longer-dated bonds, returned 2.6%.

Bonds didn’t steal the spotlight, but they did their job of providing stability and income.

31.7% gain for S&P/TSX

The spotlight stealer was, without a doubt, the stock market. Equities powered through wild swings in investor sentiment and uncertainty to deliver another banner year.

It’s worth recalling that in late 2024, many investors wanted to go all‑in on the U.S. market. U.S. markets had dominated for a decade, handily outperforming Canadian equities by more than 6% annually for the last 10 years. Future prospects were gloomy because of the prospect of tariffs, job losses and a productivity crisis.

But Canada shocked everyone. As of December 31, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 31.7%—almost triple the return of the U.S. total market index in Canadian dollar terms. Small caps did even better—skyrocketing a whopping 50.3%—while large and mid-cap value stocks gained 35.8%.

Safe-haven investors powered Canadian gains

The gains reduced the gap between U.S. and Canadian equities from 6% annually to 1.5% over the last 10 years. This is especially impressive considering that U.S. returns included the booming Magnificent 7 stocks.

This reinforces our message of diversification and not trying to wait for “the right moment” to invest. Returns often come in short, unpredictable bursts. If you wait, you’re likely to miss out.

The Canadian gains were powered by financials, energy and basic materials—the last benefitting from the rush into gold by safe-haven seekers. Basic materials small caps spiked an incredible 137.6% in 2025.

Mag 7 mega-stocks soared 21.9%

U.S. equities lagged, but still turned in a decent performance, with an 11.9% gain for the U.S. total market index in Canadian dollars (17.2% in U.S. dollars, the difference being due to the greenback falling against the loonie). Unlike in Canada, small caps and value stocks trailed, up 7.7% and 10.7% respectively in Canadian dollars.

The AI boom didn’t end; if anything, it accelerated. Roughly 40% out of the 17.9% return of the S&P 500 Index came from tech stocks, while 18% was from communication services.

The Magnificent 7 tech mega-stocks, which represent about a third of the S&P 500, remained the gravitational centre of the market with an average performance of 21.9%. That said, the boost really came from only two of the Mag 7 stocks that beat the market— Alphabet (Google), which rose 65.2% in U.S. dollars, and NVIDIA (up 38.9%).

International stocks delivered another surprise. International large and mid-cap stocks shot up 25.3% in Canadian dollars, while small caps and value stocks surged 25.9% and 35.8% respectively.

Emerging large and mid-cap stocks rallied 28.3% in Canadian dollars.

Uncertainty is the cost of admission

Uncertainty was plentiful in 2025, but 2026 has started off no different. Geopolitical and tariff risks are still significant. In fact, there has never been a year when everything was calm and predictable. Markets have always lived with uncertainty. Sudden events push us to react emotionally, as we discussed in our recent blog on investors’ behavioural biases.

But uncertainty isn’t a bug; it’s the system—the price of admission for higher long-term returns.

Last year was a reminder that markets don’t move in straight lines or follow the headlines. Remaining invested, diversified and disciplined paid off again. Investors who tried to time the market missed the strongest parts of the rally.

Investors who stayed the course prospered.

Find more commentary on personal finance and investing, our podcast, past blog posts, eBooks, model portfolios and market statistics on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and our Capital Topics website.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Stay informed and inspired. Subscribe to our Bi-Weekly Newsletter for the latest podcasts, blogs, and James & François’ top reads from the past two weeks.

High Returns Unlikely to Last

High Returns Unlikely to Last

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

Investors have had an incredible ride in the past decade. Stock markets soared, portfolios swelled.

It’s tempting to get complacent and expect this to be the new normal. Some investors may come to expect double-digit stock gains year after year. They may even reduce their savings or build lofty expectations of an early retirement.

Tap the breaks—the coming years are likely to be less generous.

4.5% real return on equity

Twice a year, PWL Capital updates our long-term view for how stocks and bonds are expected to perform over the coming 30 years. Our latest update found that investors can expect a 4.5% annual return for global stocks after inflation, and 1% for bonds.

The figure for stocks is far lower than the 8-12% real returns that many investors and advisors expect, according to a recent Natixis survey.

Such rosy investor expectations aren’t realistic, says PWL Senior Researcher Raymond Kerzérho. He co-authored the PWL update and discussed the findings on our latest Capital Topics podcast.

7% return for Canadian stocks before inflation

Raymond cautions that his figures aren’t a prediction, but rather a planning assumption. We use these numbers to help prepare long-term financial plans and retirement projections for our clients. The figures are also subject to a substantial margin of error. No one can predict the future!

That said, Raymond’s nominal return estimates are:

• Bonds: 3.5%

• Canadian stocks: 7%

• U.S. stocks: 6.5%

• International stocks: 7.3%

• Global portfolio of Canadian, U.S. and international stocks: 7%

Raymond also expects long-term inflation of 2.5%. In other words, real returns for equities are likely to be far below what investors and advisors expect.

“Dangerous delusion”

Equities are likely to face headwinds because valuations are historically high. The S&P 500 has returned 15% annually over the past decade, “far in excess of its long-term annualized return of 10.3%,” Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig recently noted.

Taking high returns for granted can leave you with “a severe shortfall” if markets stumble, Zweig said.

The problem, he said, “is that a booming stock market breeds complacency. Huge returns make a comfy retirement for everyone seem within reach, without effort or sacrifice. And that’s a dangerous delusion.”

Homes aren’t a magic exception

Real estate isn’t immune from overly lofty expectations. Most people have a lot of money tied up in their principal residence. But in another eye-opener, Raymond expects a long-term annual price appreciation of just 1% for houses after inflation. This doesn’t even include home ownership costs such as taxes, insurance and maintenance.

The 1% figure may come as a surprise to Canadians used to skyrocketing house prices. As Raymond points out, the recent outperformance has been the exception, not the rule.

“When compared to stocks over the long term, housing does not compare well,” he told our podcast. “If you account for inflation and all the money you reinvested in it, the return on a personal residence is not great.”

Peers are more pessimistic

PWL isn’t the only one warning of lower future returns. In fact, our expectations are more optimistic than those of other major investment firms.

As Raymond noted last year, our long-term expectations for Canadian bonds and most equity markets are higher than those of four other firms we studied.

“Listeners may think we’re too conservative with our expected return assumptions, but in reality, we’re a bit more optimistic than some major investment firms,” Raymond said.

Investors expect 10.7% real returns

The sobering warnings stand in sharp contrast to investor expectations. Buoyed by years of high-flying stock gains, investors expect 10.7% annual after-inflation returns over the long term in stocks globally, according to the 2025 Natixis Global Survey of Individual Investors.

Expectations are even higher for U.S. stocks—12.6% annually. Even advisors expect 8.3% after inflation, the survey found.

“I was shocked when I read that,” Raymond said of the survey results. “That’s nonsense…. A 10.7% real return is not going to happen. Maybe for short periods it can happen, but in the long run, no way….

“It is your advisor’s job to educate you about the expected return of your portfolio. If your advisor has not set reasonable expectations with you, I think you should consider a change.”

Don’t steer by the rear-view mirror

The final verdict: The past doesn’t predict the future. You don’t drive a car by looking in the rear-view mirror. You shouldn’t make investing decisions that way either.

Be disciplined about sticking to your long-term investing plan. You or your advisor should periodically rebalance your holdings to align with your target allocations. Enjoy the gains of the past, by all means. But don’t build your future on them continuing.

Model portfolios and market statistics can be found on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and our Capital Topics website. Also find more commentary and insights on personal finance and investing in our podcast, past blog posts and eBooks.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Stay informed and inspired. Subscribe to our Bi-Weekly Newsletter for the latest podcasts, blogs, and James & François’ top reads from the past two weeks.

2025 Mid-Year Market Check-In: Staying the Course Paid Off

2025 Mid-Year Market Check-In: Staying the Course Paid Off

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

We’re halfway through 2025, and there’s one thing we can say for sure: It’s been anything but dull.

Between the epic market swings, tariff soap opera and geopolitical tensions, it was a masterclass in unpredictability and managing emotions. Investors saw one of the most dramatic equity market selloffs in recent memory, but those who stuck it out also enjoyed a spectacular rebound.

President Trump got the ball rolling by announcing aggressive tariffs against major trading partners in April. His “Liberation Day” economic strategy shocked investors due to its scale, speed and unpredictability.

Within days, trillions of dollars in equity value vanished across the globe, as François and I discuss in our latest Capital Topics podcast.

Double-Digit Selloffs

Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index plunged 12.2%, the MSCI EAFE developed-market index lost 13.2% and the S&P 500 Index in the U.S. shed 14.7%.

(To see market data and our model portfolios, visit our Capital Topics website’s resources section or our team’s page on the PWL Capital website. Our model portfolios can be a good tool for readers to evaluate their own results.)

Especially significant was the negative reaction of the bond market. Normally, when stocks fall, investors turn to the safety of government bonds, which pushes yields down and bond prices up.

But this time, the opposite happened. Yields increased and bond prices went down. Investors were concerned that the tariffs would spark inflation—fears amplified by growing U.S. federal deficits.

Market rollercoaster

Reports suggested that the bond yield spike is what forced President Trump to pause the tariffs only a week after they were announced. This resulted in the biggest single-day equity rally since 2008. The S&P 500 Index surged 9.5%, the Nasdaq jumped 12% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 8%.

This rollercoaster ride is a perfect example of why we don’t try to time the markets. If an investor had sold when the tariffs were announced and didn’t reinvest when markets bottomed, they would have seriously damaged their portfolio.

It’s a great reminder that reacting emotionally can be costly and undermine your investment performance. As we’ve said many times over the years, market timing is not a strategy our readers should follow.

Many central banks shift to easing

As though to underscore this lesson, investors were tested with plenty of alarming news, including the war in Ukraine and the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The latter caused a 16% spike in the price of crude oil, followed by an equally sharp drop once a ceasefire agreement eased market fears.

Amid this chaos, many central banks are cautiously shifting to easing to support growth as inflation moderates. In Canada, inflation sits at 1.9% versus 2.7% in June last year. This helped the Bank of Canada reduce its benchmark interest rate from 3.25% at the year’s start to 2.75%. Canada’s economy is growing, albeit at a slow pace—1.3% year-over-year.

In the U.S., the situation is somewhat different, with inflation rising to 2.7% in June, prompting the Federal Reserve Board to keep the fed funds rate unchanged so far in 2025 at 4.5%.

Yields stayed high, equities gained

Turning to the markets, fixed-income yields in Canada and the U.S. remain well above average. The 10-year government of Canada bond yield was roughly 3.3% at the end of June, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield was 4.4%. Relatively high yields continue to be good news for investors with a large bond weighting in their portfolio.

Stock markets have shown surprising resilience given the geopolitical and tariff turbulence. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index shot up 10.2% in the first half of the year.

The strong performance particularly stands out because Canada has been at the centre of President Trump’s negative rhetoric on tariffs.

Dramatic swings in U.S. equities

Markets in the U.S. saw dramatic swings, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both in bear market territory in April after losing more than 20% since their prior highs. But then came the rebound, and the S&P 500 has now hit new all-time highs.

After all this volatility, the total U.S. market was up 5.8% year-to-date at the end of June in U.S. dollar terms. In Canadian dollars, it’s up just 0.2% because of strong gains for the loonie versus the greenback.

The U.S. dollar’s decline this year has been another big story. The greenback has fallen 10.8% against a basket of major currencies due to the trade instability, U.S. deficit concerns and other factors.

Meanwhile, international equities have performed well. The MSCI EAFE developed-market index has gained 13.2% in Canadian dollars year-to-date, while emerging market large and mid-cap stocks rose 9.5%.

Discipline and patience pay off

Overall, investors had plenty of reasons to be nervous this year so far. But those who stayed invested with diversified global portfolios were handsomely rewarded.

We saw once more that the markets are a great teacher. They show time and again that discipline and a patient focus on the long term pay off.

Find market statistics, model portfolios, more commentary, past blog posts, eBooks and podcasts on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and on our Capital Topics website. 

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Stay informed and inspired. Subscribe to our Bi-Weekly Newsletter for the latest podcasts, blogs, and James & François’ top reads from the past two weeks.

10 Investing Insights From 125 Years of Market Data

10 Investing Insights From 125 Years of Market Data

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

What do railroads in 1900 and tech giants in 2025 have in common? They both shaped markets—and remind us how much things can change.

The UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025 uses 125 years of history to show why diversification, discipline and a long-term mindset pay off.

The UBS Yearbook, published in collaboration with academics from London Business School and Cambridge University, doesn’t try to forecast the future. But it gives fascinating historical context for making better decisions today.

Global diversification pays off in 2025

One of the central messages of the 2025 Yearbook is the importance of diversification—a theme we highlight often in our blogs and podcasts. Our strategy of being globally invested paid off so far in 2025, as U.S. stock markets have faced much more volatility than equities in other countries.

As of April 30, 2025:

• The U.S. total market was down 9.2% year-to-date and off 14.2% from its February peak.

• Meanwhile, Canada’ s S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 1.4%.

• International developed market equities gained 7.2%.

• Emerging market equities were flat at 0.1%.

(See our PWL Market Statistics page for additional data.)

10 insights for successful investing

While U.S. equities outperformed during the past 15 years, many investors questioned the value of being globally diversified. This year, we saw the benefit. Diversification may not always pay off handsomely in the short term, but over a longer horizon, the evidence shows it works.

That perspective is reinforced by the UBS Yearbook’s 10 key insights for successful investing drawn from 125 years of market history.

1. Markets constantly change

   Railroads dominated equities at the start of the 1900s, accounting for 63% of the U.S. stock market. Many of today’s largest industries—energy (except for coal), technology and healthcare—were almost totally absent in 1900.

   The lesson: Nobody knows the stock market winners of the future—so don’t try to chase them. As Warren Buffett says in his Fourth Law of Motion, “For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.”

2. Equities have strongly outperformed

   Since 1900, U.S. equities have returned 9.7% annually, far outpacing bonds (4.6%) and T-Bills (3.4%). Meanwhile, inflation was 2.9% per year.

3. Real bond returns were modest

   Government bonds have offered low returns after inflation over the long term. Their annualized real return was just 0.9%, according to data from 21 markets since 1900. Bonds were more volatile than T-Bills (13.2% standard deviation versus 7.5%), but less than equities (23.0%).

4. Equities don’t offer a smooth ride

   Equities, as we know, are volatile. That’s why we expect to get a higher return than investing in safer assets.

   The U.S. equity real return was 8.5% on average, but this included six years with annual returns below negative 40%. There were also six years with gains over 40%. Volatility is the price of admission for these higher returns.

5. Patience was rewarded

   Major bear markets—like the tech crash or the 2008 financial crisis—can last years. It takes patience to stay the course. In the four great U.S. equity bear markets since 1900, stocks lost from 52% to 79% peak-to-trough. The recoveries to pre-crash levels took 5.3 to 15.5 years.

6. Diversification across asset classes helps

   Stocks and bonds have a low long-term correlation—just 0.19 in the U.S. This means owning both is a good way to reduce portolio risk. Keep in mind, however, that over shorter timeframes, this correlation can increase or decrease. We should always be mindful of the longer-term perspective.

7. Diversification within equities also matters

   Globally diversified portfolios have generated higher risk-adjusted returns over the past 50 years than investing in only domestic assets in the vast majority of countries. International diversification works!

8. Inflation impacts real returns

   While equities beat inflation over time, they don’ t always hedge it well. Returns tend to be strongest when inflation is low and stable.

9. Gold and commodities can hedge inflation—but with limits

   While these assets can help, it’s difficult to find products that are retail investor-friendly. Institutional investors may get benefits from adding this asset class.

10. Factor investing has worked—but requires patience

    Size, value, profitability and other factors have outperformed over longer horizons. Still, performance varies across cycles, and some styles can lag for years.

How to sum up all these insights? I think the message is that diversification and discipline are key to investing success. While diversified portfolios may lag at times, they help manage risk and are rewarded over time. This includes owning broadly diversified funds to ensure we own the winning stocks of tomorrow.

Equity investors earn a premium because they’re willing to withstand volatility and drawdowns. It’s easier to stay disciplined if you have a long-term focus and a well-crafted portfolio that aligns with your risk tolerance and personal goals. As investment manager Ben Carlson recently wrote, “You can more easily lean into the pain when you know what you’re buying, holding and why.”

Success in investing doesn’t come from market timing, stock picking or being swayed by the trend of the day. As 125 years of data show, long-term thinking is what matters.

Let us help you secure your legacy and make a lasting difference. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive wealth transfer and philanthropic planning services.

Read more commentary and insights on personal finance and investing in our past blog posts, eBooks and podcast on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and on our Capital Topics website. 

Lessons of 2024—five truths for investors

Lessons of 2024—five truths for investors 

By James Parkyn - PWL Capital - Montreal

What the past year revealed about forecasts, timing the market and diversification  

The markets are a wonderful teacher. If we pay attention, they provide fascinating lessons about investing.

Our friend and author Larry Swedroe put it nicely. “With great frequency, markets offer remedial courses covering lessons they taught in previous years,” he wrote.

“That’s why one of my favorite sayings is that there’s nothing new in investing, only investment history you don’t know.”

With these wise words in mind, let’s take a look at our five main lessons from 2024. Spoiler: It may not come as a surprise that all of this year’s lessons can be found in our lessons from 2022 and 2023.

Lesson #1: No one can forecast the markets.

Market forecasters from major financial institutions had a terrible record last year. This is nothing new. They also had a poor record in 2023 and the year before that. The lesson here: Don’t pay attention to the annual caravan of  forecasts and outlooks for the coming year.

It is true that occasionally a handful of forecasters can get it right—generally thanks to sheer luck. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day. That doesn’t mean those analysts’ predictions will be correct in future. No one can consistently predict the markets. Our advice is to tune out the noise and stay focused on your long-term investing success.

Lesson #2: Valuations don’t help you time the markets.

After two years of outstanding back-to-back gains for equities, some investors have grown nervous about excessive valuations. But such past periods don’t give solid clues about what to expect this year.

As markets hit repeated new highs last year, they continued to soar—hitting higher highs again and again. Research shows that stock markets don’t necessarily underperform after new highs. “There are no crystal balls allowing us to foresee exactly when each shift will occur [from outperformance to underperformance],” Larry Swedroe recently wrote.

That said, it is a good idea to periodically review your holdings and rebalance them to stay aligned with your target allocations. Speak with your advisor about this process. At PWL, we have such conversations regularly with our clients.  

Lesson #3: Active management is a loser’s game.

Just 4% of companies were responsible for all stock market wealth creation above risk-free Treasuries from 1926 to 2023, according to an eye-opening study by Arizona State University finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder.

How do you pick the winning stocks of the future? You can’t. “Picking stocks is more like gambling than investing,” says David Booth, co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors.

But you don’t need to find the winners if you simply buy the whole market through an index fund. That way, you can be sure to benefit no matter which companies gain. As Vanguard founder Jack C. Bogle puts it: “Don’t look for the needle, buy the haystack.”

Lesson #4: Diversification works.  

U.S. stocks outperformed their international and Canadian counterparts in 2024. Does that mean diversification no longer works? Of course not. Some sector or country always does better in any given year. We just can’t know ahead of time which one.

Instead of rolling the dice, we must remember why we diversified our portfolios in the first place—to reduce risk while maintaining long-term expected returns.

Research supports this approach. In a paper titled “International Diversification—Still Not Crazy After All These Years” in The Journal of Portfolio Management, the authors concluded that international diversification “does a pretty great job of protecting investors over the long term…. The long-run case for it remains relevant. Both financial theory and common sense favor international diversification.”

Lesson #5: Sticking to your plan paid off in 2024. 

Sticking to your investing plan pays off. Investors who held onto their broadly diversified portfolios through the volatility of recent years were handsomely rewarded in 2024.

The lesson? Invest based on long-term planning—not emotions. Imagine if you had quit the markets early because of the volatility. “Pessimism always sounds smarter than optimism,” Morgan Housel, author of the book The Psychology of Money, wrote, “because optimism sounds like a sales pitch while pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.”

The markets in their wisdom are continually providing valuable lessons. It’s up to us to notice them and learn from them. This allows us to greet with confidence and discipline whatever may come in 2025. 

Read more commentary and insights on personal finance and investing in our past blog posts, eBooks and podcast on the website of PWL Capital’s Parkyn-Doyon La Rochelle team and on our Capital Topics website.  

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